Friday, June 30, 2006
Monday's follow-up to the latest series of interviews never materialized. Apparently, the guy had double-booked. After almost a week of phone tag, we rescheduled for a week from next Wednesday. I get the feeling there's no sense of urgency here, hmm? Well, perhaps for the best. At least I know where I stand. And, while things remain quiet at the primary workplace, I am still reminded that I am not in any way forced to make a move at this time. I guess the past few weeks will just be added to that big bin of unsuccessful ventures we tend to label "experience."
Saturday, June 24, 2006
Lazy
So, I've recently been on a few interviews with a small (read: so microscopic it's not even on the map) hedge fund. The position I'm looking at is basically a kind of Jack-of-all-trades type of thing - part trader, part analyst, part portfolio manager, part arbitrageur. We've already discussed that my background is pretty much exclusively trading, and that I'd need to take some classes (probably the CFA) to get up to speed on the analysis side.
Despite that, the previous interview, as well as the upcoming one, basically involve me acting as an analyst and presenting a report on a particular M&A scenario. Now, I don't really mind doing this, as it's a very interesting learning exercise. But, I do get annoyed when, after reiterating that this is the first time I've put something like this together, I'm told that I'm a lazy analyst. Look, six months ago, if you'd said "free cash flow" to me, my eyes would glaze over and my mind would rapidly relocate itself to the nearest drinking establishment. The fact that I can now navigate a balance sheet and build a model is due 100% to initiative on my part. I can do this because I've made the effort to ask how to do it and, when the answers were not forthcoming from my own firm's research department, I just went off and figured it out myself.
I have no doubt that the report I wrote for my most recent interview was not as good a very good one. (In fact, I am now well aware of several critical mistakes, which have now been corrected.) But, I don't know why anyone would have expected me to put something together that was as good as a professional analyst could do. And here's the kicker - my conclusions were pretty much dead-on when compared with those of real analysts. And the questions that I was asked that I didn't know the answer to? Well, neither did the analyst at a major I-bank who I spoke to afterwards, who'd been working on that specific deal for some time.
It's very frustrating that I'm spending so much of my time on this project and getting so much negative feedback. After spending about half an hour storming around my apartment, debating whether to just say "the hell with it" and cancelling the next interview, I realized that I've actually learned a great deal about analysis and research. I sat back down and started churning out some corrections and additions. There's really no harm in giving this one last shot, but that's all. It's not like I'm in a position where I need this job - sure it'll be great for the resume and get me onto the right side of the telephone, as well as be a fantastic learning experience. But, I can probably get as good a job, if not better, at another time. No sense in giving myself stress over something I don't need.
Despite that, the previous interview, as well as the upcoming one, basically involve me acting as an analyst and presenting a report on a particular M&A scenario. Now, I don't really mind doing this, as it's a very interesting learning exercise. But, I do get annoyed when, after reiterating that this is the first time I've put something like this together, I'm told that I'm a lazy analyst. Look, six months ago, if you'd said "free cash flow" to me, my eyes would glaze over and my mind would rapidly relocate itself to the nearest drinking establishment. The fact that I can now navigate a balance sheet and build a model is due 100% to initiative on my part. I can do this because I've made the effort to ask how to do it and, when the answers were not forthcoming from my own firm's research department, I just went off and figured it out myself.
I have no doubt that the report I wrote for my most recent interview was not as good a very good one. (In fact, I am now well aware of several critical mistakes, which have now been corrected.) But, I don't know why anyone would have expected me to put something together that was as good as a professional analyst could do. And here's the kicker - my conclusions were pretty much dead-on when compared with those of real analysts. And the questions that I was asked that I didn't know the answer to? Well, neither did the analyst at a major I-bank who I spoke to afterwards, who'd been working on that specific deal for some time.
It's very frustrating that I'm spending so much of my time on this project and getting so much negative feedback. After spending about half an hour storming around my apartment, debating whether to just say "the hell with it" and cancelling the next interview, I realized that I've actually learned a great deal about analysis and research. I sat back down and started churning out some corrections and additions. There's really no harm in giving this one last shot, but that's all. It's not like I'm in a position where I need this job - sure it'll be great for the resume and get me onto the right side of the telephone, as well as be a fantastic learning experience. But, I can probably get as good a job, if not better, at another time. No sense in giving myself stress over something I don't need.
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Grups
New York Magazine has a recent article describing what they refer to as "grups," or 30-something (typically) New Yorkers who refuse to grow up. Wandering through adulthood in distressed jeans, hoodies, sneakers, and shoulder bags, they remind me of the people I see on St Marks, trying to blend in with the NYU kids despite having graduated from college long ago.
Or my roommate.
Or my roommate.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Talking Trading: Bear Market?
This past Friday saw the worst one-day drop in the markets in about 3 years. The Dow was down over 200 points, erasing all the gains of 2006 to date. Not a good way to start off the year.
What's interesting to me is the wide variety of reasons I've heard given for Friday's plunge. Most of the talk on Friday itself surrounded either concerns about Iran's possible nuclear weapons program, or the higher price of oil. (Granted, the Iran situation would naturally cause oil to rally, thus pressuring the equities markets, so these two concerns are more than casually related.) As the weekend progressed though, I started hearing more mention of things like the inverted yield curve again, or the big decline in housing starts, or even inflation. Others, like me, were more focused on the string of bad earnings reports from major companies like Intel, GE, Apple, Alcoa, et al.
What's striking isn't that people can't decide what's causing the selloff. No, what we should be worried about is that there are so many bearish indicators and events that are all popping up at the exact same time. While inflation or Iran alone aren't enough to cause a recession, the combinaion of all these things should cause more than a little bit of worry. Especially when one considers that housing has been the primary driver for the economy for the past several years. Add to the mix the fact that home equity loans are shrinking fast, and we have a real issue on our hands. Consider also that both housing starts and corporate earnings are leading indicators. I'll be watching the next few weeks of employment data very carefully - if jobless claims start rising again, I'd expect to see GDP growth level off and maybe even start to decline by the second quarter.
Of course, if the economy does start to cool off, what should we do to protect our investments? First off, inklings of recession are a great signal to take stock profits off the table. That's an obvious one. Usually, the best move is to roll into the bond market, since the Fed typically cuts rates in order to try and kick-start the economy. (Note, Greenspan's tenure as Fed chief has reached it's final few days, and nobody really knows how Bernanke will proceed. However, there's already a lot of speculation that Bernanke will, at the very least, stop raising rates within the next few months.) The only problem with the bond market right now is that it's already pretty high, since overseas investors, primarily from Asia, have been buying up our long-term debt with seemingly endless voracity. While it may be a safer bet than equities in general, you're not going to get rich buying bonds at these levels.
One interesting possibility, however, is to increase holdings in foreign securities, either debt or equities. In theory, if the US economy starts to slow, the dollar will weaken. Assuming that foreign countries do not experience as severe a slowdown, one could profit by buying foreign stocks, waiting for the dollar to weaken, and then convert back into US currency, taking advantage of both the forex play and, hopefully, decent returns on the stocks in general.
Keep in mind - it's hard enough to find a decent stock to buy in this country. Trying to do the research to find a solid company overseas, where accounting rules may differ, local laws certainly will not be the same, and finanical statements may not be written in English, can be extremely difficult. Not to mention, it's neither easy nor cheap to directly invest in many foreign countries. Perhaps a few closed end funds or country ETFs would be the best solution.
What's interesting to me is the wide variety of reasons I've heard given for Friday's plunge. Most of the talk on Friday itself surrounded either concerns about Iran's possible nuclear weapons program, or the higher price of oil. (Granted, the Iran situation would naturally cause oil to rally, thus pressuring the equities markets, so these two concerns are more than casually related.) As the weekend progressed though, I started hearing more mention of things like the inverted yield curve again, or the big decline in housing starts, or even inflation. Others, like me, were more focused on the string of bad earnings reports from major companies like Intel, GE, Apple, Alcoa, et al.
What's striking isn't that people can't decide what's causing the selloff. No, what we should be worried about is that there are so many bearish indicators and events that are all popping up at the exact same time. While inflation or Iran alone aren't enough to cause a recession, the combinaion of all these things should cause more than a little bit of worry. Especially when one considers that housing has been the primary driver for the economy for the past several years. Add to the mix the fact that home equity loans are shrinking fast, and we have a real issue on our hands. Consider also that both housing starts and corporate earnings are leading indicators. I'll be watching the next few weeks of employment data very carefully - if jobless claims start rising again, I'd expect to see GDP growth level off and maybe even start to decline by the second quarter.
Of course, if the economy does start to cool off, what should we do to protect our investments? First off, inklings of recession are a great signal to take stock profits off the table. That's an obvious one. Usually, the best move is to roll into the bond market, since the Fed typically cuts rates in order to try and kick-start the economy. (Note, Greenspan's tenure as Fed chief has reached it's final few days, and nobody really knows how Bernanke will proceed. However, there's already a lot of speculation that Bernanke will, at the very least, stop raising rates within the next few months.) The only problem with the bond market right now is that it's already pretty high, since overseas investors, primarily from Asia, have been buying up our long-term debt with seemingly endless voracity. While it may be a safer bet than equities in general, you're not going to get rich buying bonds at these levels.
One interesting possibility, however, is to increase holdings in foreign securities, either debt or equities. In theory, if the US economy starts to slow, the dollar will weaken. Assuming that foreign countries do not experience as severe a slowdown, one could profit by buying foreign stocks, waiting for the dollar to weaken, and then convert back into US currency, taking advantage of both the forex play and, hopefully, decent returns on the stocks in general.
Keep in mind - it's hard enough to find a decent stock to buy in this country. Trying to do the research to find a solid company overseas, where accounting rules may differ, local laws certainly will not be the same, and finanical statements may not be written in English, can be extremely difficult. Not to mention, it's neither easy nor cheap to directly invest in many foreign countries. Perhaps a few closed end funds or country ETFs would be the best solution.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
Saucy
Have you ever had one of those days when, while cooking dinner, you manage to make the silkiest, smoothest, most utterly perfect roux, only to realize that all you're making is a quick chicken in lemon sauce? It almost feels like a waste to take such a completely paragon base for a sauce and combine it with hardly anything. It was so perfect looking that I actually called Krikor over to look at it. (Philistine - his idea of cooking remains a jar of Newman's pasta sauce over spaghetti, despite my efforts to enlighten him.) I wonder if top chefs ever feel regret. Do they feel a tinge of sadness, after making a perfect meal, that someone else gets to eat it? Someone who has no idea of the true artfulness of the meal that has been prepared for him.
Lovely roux, you deserved more than chicken stock and lemon juice - not even freshly squeezed! Rest assured, despite that, you were still delicious.
Lovely roux, you deserved more than chicken stock and lemon juice - not even freshly squeezed! Rest assured, despite that, you were still delicious.
Saturday, December 24, 2005
Steerike!
The NYC transit strike of 2005 has officially ended. At just 3 days, it was very poorly timed - too long to just be an exciting adventure, yet too short to be a disaster. Basically, it was a nuisance. While I wasn't very happy about having to pay for taxis to get to work, I had no trouble finding them in the morning. As for getting home, walking 2 miles every evening is good exercise which I could probably use. If it weren't so cold outside, I'd probably enjoy it. I'll sometimes walk home during the spring or summer when the weather is nice - it's a great way to decompress after work.
The big losers in this strike, it seems to me, were the union rank and file. They elected a militant leader who approached negotiations with outrageous demands a rational person knew wouldn't ever be accepted by the MTA. I understand that the union got a lousy contract last time, with a measly 1% per year raise, but that doesn't mean that the next time around you should expect 8% per year. Face it - you screwed up last time. You lost. The MTA won. This time, definitely try to do better, but don't expect the MTA to compensate you this time for your bad negotiations last time. Life doesn't work that way. And then, when a good offer is placed on the table, union leadership walked away from the table over pension contributions from future employees. This is what the union rank and file was losing pay over - pension contributions from workers who haven't even been hired yet. The TWU local 100 was fined $1 million per day, and essentially was bankrupted, because Roger Toussaint held out over an issue that doesn't affect a single current member of the union. I sincerely hope that the union membership finds itself some new leadership soon - it's obvious the powers that be in the city of New York will not be forgiving if the union strikes again.
The big losers in this strike, it seems to me, were the union rank and file. They elected a militant leader who approached negotiations with outrageous demands a rational person knew wouldn't ever be accepted by the MTA. I understand that the union got a lousy contract last time, with a measly 1% per year raise, but that doesn't mean that the next time around you should expect 8% per year. Face it - you screwed up last time. You lost. The MTA won. This time, definitely try to do better, but don't expect the MTA to compensate you this time for your bad negotiations last time. Life doesn't work that way. And then, when a good offer is placed on the table, union leadership walked away from the table over pension contributions from future employees. This is what the union rank and file was losing pay over - pension contributions from workers who haven't even been hired yet. The TWU local 100 was fined $1 million per day, and essentially was bankrupted, because Roger Toussaint held out over an issue that doesn't affect a single current member of the union. I sincerely hope that the union membership finds itself some new leadership soon - it's obvious the powers that be in the city of New York will not be forgiving if the union strikes again.
Sunday, December 18, 2005
Sprint!!!
I am sitting on Val's couch right now, as she's drying her hair and getting ready so we can go over to Grandma's for her annual holiday get-together. It should be an interesting mix of holidays - Grandma is technically the only non-Jewish member of the family, but it's at her apartment so I suppose it's a Christmas party. With Bagels and Lox. Perhaps not as traditional as, say, turkey or chicken, but certainly more enticing. I have heard a rumor involving some jambalaya that may or may not be present at some time tonight. This is unconfirmed. Reports of cookies from Veniero's are much more substantiated.
I decided to make Val go running with me today - it's one of the last nice days of the year before global "warming" turns NYC into Siberian taiga for 3 months. She knows I used to do a lot of running in the past. However, she was not quite prepared for that sprint up Clyde Street at the end of our little run. Despite that, she still wants to do it again. You know, it's been a while since I've done the Central Park loop... (Insert diabolical grin here.)
I decided to make Val go running with me today - it's one of the last nice days of the year before global "warming" turns NYC into Siberian taiga for 3 months. She knows I used to do a lot of running in the past. However, she was not quite prepared for that sprint up Clyde Street at the end of our little run. Despite that, she still wants to do it again. You know, it's been a while since I've done the Central Park loop... (Insert diabolical grin here.)
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Virtual Laboratory
Question: You’ve proposed the creation of an academic center for the study of synthetic worlds. What would such a center try to accomplish?
Castronova: It would try to develop some sense of the policy options in this space, try to parse out the opportunities and the risks. It would develop educational applications. It would develop the following research idea: If we built a series of comparable synthetic worlds, couldn’t we unleash slightly different policies in each one? It seems to me that this would be an unprecedented opportunity to study human behavior at the social level. No one has ever been able to study such things before, not in this way, not using the tried-and-true experimental methods of the natural sciences. Imagine how a few well-designed experiments about socialism in 1870 might have affected world history. We have a lot of pressing questions about societal behavior right now—human population response to disease, for one example; community response to natural disaster, for another. These things could be directly studied in synthetic worlds; without them, all we have is pure theory, and historical data (in which policy causality is basically impossible to untangle). The idea would cost $20 million to $50 million, but it would also dramatically improve business as usual in a large chunk of the university
This snippet of an interview with Edward Castronova raises what I believe to be one of the most important points in the future of social science. Virtual worlds as complex as Everquest will allow true experimentation in a way that was never before possible. Social sciences will actually become sciences, based on empirical data and testable hypotheses, not suppositions and crude polling methodology. Public policy can be tested before it is implemented. Economic forecasting and modelling will improve to the point where the Federal Reserve can maintain the US economy at its optimal point. Recessions and inflation could become distant memories. While certainly ambitious, Castronova's proposed institute could have so many applications that it more than justifies the price tag.
Personally, I'd love to get involved in a program like this. In particular, I think there's an interesting macroeconomic study that's waiting to be examined. Thus far, every virtual world's economy basically revolves around perpetual currency creation. Every player can go off and slay whatever monsters inhabit that particular realm, and are rewarded either directly with currency, or with some object that is easily converted into currency. The result, of course, is inflation. In order to combat the perpetually collapsing value of the realm's currency, the games' designers have implemented a variety of money-sinks which, if attractive enough, will entice the players to spend there, thereby reducing the realm's money supply and keeping inflation in check.
My suggestion is as follows: why not create a world where the creation of currency is far more difficult? Instead, implement a banking system where currency can be lent and borrowed. Initially there would probably have to be just one central bank, controlled by the simulation's moderators. Over time, though, wealthier participants could create their own banks, set their own interest rates, and succeed or fail based on the whims of market forces. If enough complexity is acheived, a reserve banking system could be implemented, and then both fiscal and monetary policy could be tested in a laboratory environment. Experiments could be repeated and modified in order to determine the best course for the real Federal Reserve to take.
Perhaps this type of simulation is too complex for the time being. I suspect, however, that it's not. Too bad I have neither the time nor the programming skills to put something like this together...
Sunday, September 25, 2005
Insiders vs Analysts
An interesting, if poorly written article in the New York Times this morning briefly recaps a new study examining the dissonance between analyst recommendations and insider trading. Specifically, the study finds that when analysts downgrade a stock and insiders begin to buy, the stock typically outperforms the market. An abstract of this study, written by Jim Hsieh, Lilian K. Ng, and Qinghai Wang, as well as a link to a downloadable PDF of the full text, can be found here.
The results of this study don't really surprise me much. I've spent the past few months at work trying to learn as much as possible from our research department, as well as examining traditional research techniques. I have to say that, first off, many research analysts don't understand trading very well. Too often they downgrade a stock after it's been hit, or upgrade after a good run-up, and end up being of little value other than as a lagging indicator. Secondly, analysts often run in packs - there seems to be a dearth of unique analysis techniques, causing many of the big banks to come to the same conclusions based on the same methodology. Due to the new restrictions on public dissemination of corporate information, (Reg FD,) it's unlikely analysts can effectively be anything more than laggards.
Corporate insiders, by contrast, have access to information that is not available to analysts or the public. They can see monthly, weekly, and sometimes even daily sales recepits. They know about changes in the supply chain. They know if a major corporate maneuver is about to be initiated. This gives them a unique perspective, and an advantage over the analyst community. If, due to the capriciousness of the market, a stock has been falling despite an insider being aware of strong corporate prospects, of course he'll buy at depressed levels. Of course, this is exactly the same time that many of the banks' analysts are downgrading - it's more important for many of them to not be seen as having an "outperform" on a stock that's down 20% while your peers are downgrading than it is to make the differentiated, gutsy call.
The results of this study don't really surprise me much. I've spent the past few months at work trying to learn as much as possible from our research department, as well as examining traditional research techniques. I have to say that, first off, many research analysts don't understand trading very well. Too often they downgrade a stock after it's been hit, or upgrade after a good run-up, and end up being of little value other than as a lagging indicator. Secondly, analysts often run in packs - there seems to be a dearth of unique analysis techniques, causing many of the big banks to come to the same conclusions based on the same methodology. Due to the new restrictions on public dissemination of corporate information, (Reg FD,) it's unlikely analysts can effectively be anything more than laggards.
Corporate insiders, by contrast, have access to information that is not available to analysts or the public. They can see monthly, weekly, and sometimes even daily sales recepits. They know about changes in the supply chain. They know if a major corporate maneuver is about to be initiated. This gives them a unique perspective, and an advantage over the analyst community. If, due to the capriciousness of the market, a stock has been falling despite an insider being aware of strong corporate prospects, of course he'll buy at depressed levels. Of course, this is exactly the same time that many of the banks' analysts are downgrading - it's more important for many of them to not be seen as having an "outperform" on a stock that's down 20% while your peers are downgrading than it is to make the differentiated, gutsy call.
Thursday, September 15, 2005
Specialist Unit 949 Is No More
Last Friday I got a call at work from an AMEX broker I used to trade with. I used to stand next to him when I traded Yahoo options, and we became friendly. As it happened, I went to elementary school with his brother, and thus we had a few mutual friends. Anyway, in the process of trying to sell me on some shady transaction that he was involved with, he mentioned my old firm. "You know, the rumor around here is that Charlton book is closing down." Now, I've known for a while that they've been having some problems, and that there was a good possibility of the book closing up at year-end, so I didn't think much of it.
Then Monday, while I was bored, I surfed over to the AMEX website. Scrolling through the floor bulletins, I clicked on a Relocations Of Options list.
Oh shit.
Somebody's book went out of business. There must be 75 options there that were all transferred to LaBranche. Wait. I know those options. I know that book.
Oh shit.
Charlton's done.
Just like that, my old firm closed up shop Friday afternoon. After the initial feelings of relief that I got out before the axe fell, I realized that most of my friends down there probably have no job left. I tried calling Jeff, but no answer. I emailed Yogi. He knew a little more than me - and it sounded ugly.
Finally, Jeff called me last night while I was out. We spoke for an hour, and he gave me the details. It was very ugly. Basically, the 3 senior partners decided to just pull the plug. Most of the junior guys were given jobs trading upstairs, at $30k per year draw. That's it. Jeff and Arnold were told they were not being offered positions. Between the two of them, they probably accounted for 35 years of loyalty and easily $60 million in profit. Apparently, that meant little to the other 3. It just goes to show you - loyalty to your job is overrated. Look out for yourself, since nobody's going to look out for you.
Then Monday, while I was bored, I surfed over to the AMEX website. Scrolling through the floor bulletins, I clicked on a Relocations Of Options list.
Oh shit.
Somebody's book went out of business. There must be 75 options there that were all transferred to LaBranche. Wait. I know those options. I know that book.
Oh shit.
Charlton's done.
Just like that, my old firm closed up shop Friday afternoon. After the initial feelings of relief that I got out before the axe fell, I realized that most of my friends down there probably have no job left. I tried calling Jeff, but no answer. I emailed Yogi. He knew a little more than me - and it sounded ugly.
Finally, Jeff called me last night while I was out. We spoke for an hour, and he gave me the details. It was very ugly. Basically, the 3 senior partners decided to just pull the plug. Most of the junior guys were given jobs trading upstairs, at $30k per year draw. That's it. Jeff and Arnold were told they were not being offered positions. Between the two of them, they probably accounted for 35 years of loyalty and easily $60 million in profit. Apparently, that meant little to the other 3. It just goes to show you - loyalty to your job is overrated. Look out for yourself, since nobody's going to look out for you.
Thursday, August 25, 2005
Maybe We Should Get Together, And Waste It All Tonight
Just wasting some time before heading out to Queens for the night. Valerie just got back from DC, and is currently being entertained/interrogated/fed by her parents. Hope she calls soon - it's a long ride out to Forest Hills, and I still have to be at work at 7:00 tomorrow. Well, 7:15. Maybe 7:30 if I push it. Boss is still on vacation.
We got our Voter Information Packets today in the mail - the primaries are coming up soon for NYC mayor, comptroller, city council, and various other elected positions that really don't matter in the grand scheme of things save for keeping the political machine's wheels well-greased. Unfortunately, the guide contained information on only the Democratic and Republican candidates. No Socialist Workers Party this time. However, Krikor and I were very entertained by mayoral candidate Christopher Xavier Brodeur, whose proposals include outlawing politicians who lie, eliminating fares for subways, (but, apparently, not buses,) mandatory organ donation, and outlawing umbrellas. He also seems to have some sort of Howard Hughes-esque fear of germs, since, if elected, Brodeur will both install foot-pedal controlled water faucets and make all bathroom doors in the city open outwards, such that nobody will have to touch dirty faucet handles or doorknobs again. Further, he demands that all tables in the city be forced to have 3 legs so they don't wobble. According to him, this is a major problem, and he accuses frontrunner Fernando Ferrer of "ignoring" this crisis. Riiiight.
This website is just too good. I'm going off to post it to MonkeyFilter straight away.
We got our Voter Information Packets today in the mail - the primaries are coming up soon for NYC mayor, comptroller, city council, and various other elected positions that really don't matter in the grand scheme of things save for keeping the political machine's wheels well-greased. Unfortunately, the guide contained information on only the Democratic and Republican candidates. No Socialist Workers Party this time. However, Krikor and I were very entertained by mayoral candidate Christopher Xavier Brodeur, whose proposals include outlawing politicians who lie, eliminating fares for subways, (but, apparently, not buses,) mandatory organ donation, and outlawing umbrellas. He also seems to have some sort of Howard Hughes-esque fear of germs, since, if elected, Brodeur will both install foot-pedal controlled water faucets and make all bathroom doors in the city open outwards, such that nobody will have to touch dirty faucet handles or doorknobs again. Further, he demands that all tables in the city be forced to have 3 legs so they don't wobble. According to him, this is a major problem, and he accuses frontrunner Fernando Ferrer of "ignoring" this crisis. Riiiight.
This website is just too good. I'm going off to post it to MonkeyFilter straight away.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Talking Trading: IDS
I've realized that I really haven't done any discussion of economics or finance here yet. Since one of the points of So Derivative is to be a forum for me to talk about trading, especially given that most of my friends' eyes glaze over when I start in on this topic, I suppose I should get down to business. So, I now present the first installment of Talking Trading.
So, I've come across an interesting hybrid security recently. It's called an Income Deposit Security, or IDS, although apparently there are other 3-letter acronyms for this same exact type of instrument. (One I've come across is EIS, or Enhanced Income Security.) The deal here is that an IDS is actually a packaged security - every IDS unit that a company issues is made up of one share of common stock and one bond. While they are publicly listed on an exchange, and trade together as a single unit, they are seperable into the two components under certain conditions. Further, there is (theoretically) an OTC market for the separate pieces. Naturally, this would lead to some obvious arbitrage potential, but my guess is that virtually nobody would bother to actually separate the two parts. Most likely, the units need to be separable for tax purposes, but nobody ever bothers to actually go through the process.
As far as I can tell, the IDS concept was pioneered in Canada, and really hasn't caught on very well in the US. I've only found a handful of these that trade, all on the AMEX. They don't seem to be very well publicized, as seems to be the case with most publicly traded structured products. What's intriguing to me, though, is that several of them seem to trade at a very high yield. What's more, I think there's a real opportunity for mispricing. Let's say, for example, company XYZ issues an IDS at $10 - $5 per share of common stock and $5 per bond. Further, let's assume that XYZ earned $1 per share for last year. A cursory glance at XYZ would lead one to believe that it was trading at 10x earnings - $10 per unit divided by $1 per share. But, half of that unit is a bond, which will be redeemed at a set date in the future. In reality, XYZ is trading at 5x earnings, since each share is worth only $5. If you actually went through the motions of separating out the two pieces of the unit, you could sell the bond, get your $5 back, and still have access to the same exact earnings stream. A few minutes online leafing through a prospectus, and you should have no problem figuring out what the par value of the bonds are on any IDS, thus giving you the true value of the stock portion of the unit. A few more minutes on Yahoo! finance can give you some back-of-the-envelope industry comps, which will give you a decent idea as to whether and IDS is grossly undervalued or not. Even after applying something like a 25% discount to peers due to the investing public's fear of the unknown, and I still suspect there's quite a bit of opportunity here.
I've already bought a few units in one company, and I'm planning on searching for some more. Due to the almost complete lack of publicity, they're not that easy to find. Also, many of the companies that issue structured products do so because they are on shakier ground - they need something to entice potential buyers because the common stock on it's own isn't particularly attractive. I wouldn't bet the farm on something like this, but it's probably a nice addition to the portfolio. Adding yet another wrinkle here is the fact that many of these IDSs are Canadian. On one hand, taking the Canadian units into account gives you many more choices. On the other hand, you'd be taking on currency risk as well as the ordinary risks in buying both the stock and bonds of the same company. It's in no way cost-efficient for an individual investor to hedge a small amount of currency risk, yet over an extended time-span the effect could be very significant.
Oh well, nobody said this game was easy. These IDSs could turn out to be giant flops. Then again, it wasn't that long ago that people were buying publicly traded warrants under parity, and convertible bonds could be bought for a credit. Never underestimate the stupidity of the market - the opportunities are still out there.
So, I've come across an interesting hybrid security recently. It's called an Income Deposit Security, or IDS, although apparently there are other 3-letter acronyms for this same exact type of instrument. (One I've come across is EIS, or Enhanced Income Security.) The deal here is that an IDS is actually a packaged security - every IDS unit that a company issues is made up of one share of common stock and one bond. While they are publicly listed on an exchange, and trade together as a single unit, they are seperable into the two components under certain conditions. Further, there is (theoretically) an OTC market for the separate pieces. Naturally, this would lead to some obvious arbitrage potential, but my guess is that virtually nobody would bother to actually separate the two parts. Most likely, the units need to be separable for tax purposes, but nobody ever bothers to actually go through the process.
As far as I can tell, the IDS concept was pioneered in Canada, and really hasn't caught on very well in the US. I've only found a handful of these that trade, all on the AMEX. They don't seem to be very well publicized, as seems to be the case with most publicly traded structured products. What's intriguing to me, though, is that several of them seem to trade at a very high yield. What's more, I think there's a real opportunity for mispricing. Let's say, for example, company XYZ issues an IDS at $10 - $5 per share of common stock and $5 per bond. Further, let's assume that XYZ earned $1 per share for last year. A cursory glance at XYZ would lead one to believe that it was trading at 10x earnings - $10 per unit divided by $1 per share. But, half of that unit is a bond, which will be redeemed at a set date in the future. In reality, XYZ is trading at 5x earnings, since each share is worth only $5. If you actually went through the motions of separating out the two pieces of the unit, you could sell the bond, get your $5 back, and still have access to the same exact earnings stream. A few minutes online leafing through a prospectus, and you should have no problem figuring out what the par value of the bonds are on any IDS, thus giving you the true value of the stock portion of the unit. A few more minutes on Yahoo! finance can give you some back-of-the-envelope industry comps, which will give you a decent idea as to whether and IDS is grossly undervalued or not. Even after applying something like a 25% discount to peers due to the investing public's fear of the unknown, and I still suspect there's quite a bit of opportunity here.
I've already bought a few units in one company, and I'm planning on searching for some more. Due to the almost complete lack of publicity, they're not that easy to find. Also, many of the companies that issue structured products do so because they are on shakier ground - they need something to entice potential buyers because the common stock on it's own isn't particularly attractive. I wouldn't bet the farm on something like this, but it's probably a nice addition to the portfolio. Adding yet another wrinkle here is the fact that many of these IDSs are Canadian. On one hand, taking the Canadian units into account gives you many more choices. On the other hand, you'd be taking on currency risk as well as the ordinary risks in buying both the stock and bonds of the same company. It's in no way cost-efficient for an individual investor to hedge a small amount of currency risk, yet over an extended time-span the effect could be very significant.
Oh well, nobody said this game was easy. These IDSs could turn out to be giant flops. Then again, it wasn't that long ago that people were buying publicly traded warrants under parity, and convertible bonds could be bought for a credit. Never underestimate the stupidity of the market - the opportunities are still out there.
Sunday, August 21, 2005
Weekend of Gluttony
Basically, this has been the weekend of overeating. I have consumed way more food than I ought to have, and we're not talking lo-cal vegetarian cuisine here either. Pure gluttony in all its forms. The highlight was the Pay-Your-Age special at the Park Avenue Cafe, which would have been a fantastic deal had we not overspent on the wine. Guess you can't help it at a place like that. The food there was very good, although not incredible. The highlight was clearly dessert- the choices were both unusual and artistic. I particularly liked the sweet basil ice cream. I was so thoroughly stuffed after dinner, (we'd had a pre-dinner round of appetizers at Copperfield's for Seidman's birthday,) that I could barely finish it. I'm amazed that Val and I didn't just pass out the second we got home.
I had decided to be healthy after a day like that, so we went up to the Union Square farmers' market to buy vegetables. My ambitious plan was to make some sort of vegetarian pasta dish for dinner last night, sort of as a penance for all that food. I bought some tomatoes, squash, zucchini, onion, and green beans, and was on my way home, when Al called. He's in town from Chicago (and had met us for dinner at Park Ave) but wanted to show his brother the city. They were meeting up with Kahn at the 2nd Avenue Deli for some authentic NYC cuisine. How could I say no? It's right around the corner, and I haven't been there in ages. Their mushroom barley soup really is the best I've ever tasted. The corned beef isn't so bad either.
Now completely determined to be healthy, I returned home to relax, get some errands done, and make that healthy dinner. Right. After Al and Kahn left I fell asleep. I woke up at 7:00 when Seidman called - did I want to meet up with him for dinner for his birthday? At Outback Steakhouse? OK, plan B. Friends, let me tell you, just because a dish at Outback says it contains pasta, grilled chicken, and sundried tomatoes does NOT, under any circumstances, mean it's healthy. In fact, quite the opposite. I think they figure that the healthiness of the above ingredients allows them to put in more cheese and alfredo sauce in order to offset any nutritional value one might get from consuming said meal. Again, the night concluded with me rolling home.
Tonight would have been the ideal night to cook up something healthy, but naturally that's not going to happen either. Al just called - he wants to get dinner since he's leaving town tomorrow. Most likely, we're going to end up at Grimaldi's in Brooklyn. Somebody's got a date with the treadmill tomorrow.
I had decided to be healthy after a day like that, so we went up to the Union Square farmers' market to buy vegetables. My ambitious plan was to make some sort of vegetarian pasta dish for dinner last night, sort of as a penance for all that food. I bought some tomatoes, squash, zucchini, onion, and green beans, and was on my way home, when Al called. He's in town from Chicago (and had met us for dinner at Park Ave) but wanted to show his brother the city. They were meeting up with Kahn at the 2nd Avenue Deli for some authentic NYC cuisine. How could I say no? It's right around the corner, and I haven't been there in ages. Their mushroom barley soup really is the best I've ever tasted. The corned beef isn't so bad either.
Now completely determined to be healthy, I returned home to relax, get some errands done, and make that healthy dinner. Right. After Al and Kahn left I fell asleep. I woke up at 7:00 when Seidman called - did I want to meet up with him for dinner for his birthday? At Outback Steakhouse? OK, plan B. Friends, let me tell you, just because a dish at Outback says it contains pasta, grilled chicken, and sundried tomatoes does NOT, under any circumstances, mean it's healthy. In fact, quite the opposite. I think they figure that the healthiness of the above ingredients allows them to put in more cheese and alfredo sauce in order to offset any nutritional value one might get from consuming said meal. Again, the night concluded with me rolling home.
Tonight would have been the ideal night to cook up something healthy, but naturally that's not going to happen either. Al just called - he wants to get dinner since he's leaving town tomorrow. Most likely, we're going to end up at Grimaldi's in Brooklyn. Somebody's got a date with the treadmill tomorrow.
Sunday, August 14, 2005
Long Time No See
Right. So, I have no idea when I last wrote something here. Definitely a few months. A few things have happened since then, but I'll kind of work them in rather than just list them out.
Work's definitely improved a lot since I started. I know I'm not supposed to really discuss work here, as per my employee agreement, but I can probably say that, at first, I was a little nervous that my new boss and I weren't really working on the same wavelength. I'm still not totally satisfied with things, but at least I feel comfortable now working with him, as well as the rest of the staff. I'm also still learning a lot about balance sheet analysis and such, which is clearly going to be of help to me career-wise.
Earlier today I went to Rich Bruckner's engagement party, which was held at some Italian restaurant uptown. Kind of like Carmine's, except slightly better. A lot of the old AEPi guys showed up who I've really lost touch with. It seems there's a whole group of them who hang out all the time in NY, and I basically have no connection to any of it. Well, a little reminiscing and a recitation of The Funniest Story Ever and now I'm in. Guess I'll be spending a little more time with the likes of Demby and Waldo and Goody.
The Funniest Story Ever:
Kahn's girlfriend Dani told me this about a friend of hers. It seems this girl was hired to dog-sit for a week while the owners were on vacation. The first day she went to the apartment the dog was fine, but the second day she arrives the dog was dead. After the requisite panic, she calls animal control to figure out what to do with the dead dog. Animal control tells her that she has two choices - either she can pay $150 to have them come take away the dog, or she can bring it to a certain location in the city and they'll dipose of it for free. Not wanting to pay the money, she puts the dog in a large duffel bag and heads off for the subway. Now, apparently, this girl is kind of small, and the dog, well, it was pretty big. So, she's having some trouble carrying the bag to the subway. (Don't ask me why she was taking the subway. If there's ever a time to hail a cab, this sounds like one.) While she's struggling down the street, a man walks up to her and asks her if she needs any help.
"Yes, thank you," she says.
"Wow," he says, while lifting the bag. "This is really heavy. What's in here?"
Not wanting to explain what is really in the bag, she quickly invents a story.
"Well, I'm moving to a new apartment," she says, " and I hired some movers to take care of everything. But, I didn't want them to steal any of my valuables. So, I put them all in this bag, and figured I'd bring them myself."
"Oh, really?"
"Yes. It's all my jewelry, and some other expensive stuff that I wouldn't want stolen or damaged."
At this point, the man promptly runs off, stealing the duffel bag.
I wonder when he realized what he actually stole.
Work's definitely improved a lot since I started. I know I'm not supposed to really discuss work here, as per my employee agreement, but I can probably say that, at first, I was a little nervous that my new boss and I weren't really working on the same wavelength. I'm still not totally satisfied with things, but at least I feel comfortable now working with him, as well as the rest of the staff. I'm also still learning a lot about balance sheet analysis and such, which is clearly going to be of help to me career-wise.
Earlier today I went to Rich Bruckner's engagement party, which was held at some Italian restaurant uptown. Kind of like Carmine's, except slightly better. A lot of the old AEPi guys showed up who I've really lost touch with. It seems there's a whole group of them who hang out all the time in NY, and I basically have no connection to any of it. Well, a little reminiscing and a recitation of The Funniest Story Ever and now I'm in. Guess I'll be spending a little more time with the likes of Demby and Waldo and Goody.
The Funniest Story Ever:
Kahn's girlfriend Dani told me this about a friend of hers. It seems this girl was hired to dog-sit for a week while the owners were on vacation. The first day she went to the apartment the dog was fine, but the second day she arrives the dog was dead. After the requisite panic, she calls animal control to figure out what to do with the dead dog. Animal control tells her that she has two choices - either she can pay $150 to have them come take away the dog, or she can bring it to a certain location in the city and they'll dipose of it for free. Not wanting to pay the money, she puts the dog in a large duffel bag and heads off for the subway. Now, apparently, this girl is kind of small, and the dog, well, it was pretty big. So, she's having some trouble carrying the bag to the subway. (Don't ask me why she was taking the subway. If there's ever a time to hail a cab, this sounds like one.) While she's struggling down the street, a man walks up to her and asks her if she needs any help.
"Yes, thank you," she says.
"Wow," he says, while lifting the bag. "This is really heavy. What's in here?"
Not wanting to explain what is really in the bag, she quickly invents a story.
"Well, I'm moving to a new apartment," she says, " and I hired some movers to take care of everything. But, I didn't want them to steal any of my valuables. So, I put them all in this bag, and figured I'd bring them myself."
"Oh, really?"
"Yes. It's all my jewelry, and some other expensive stuff that I wouldn't want stolen or damaged."
At this point, the man promptly runs off, stealing the duffel bag.
I wonder when he realized what he actually stole.
Sunday, May 01, 2005
Slightly Overintoxicated
I got a tad bit drunk last night. OK, more than a tad. I was shit-faced, plastered, blasted, falling-down WASTED. Not a good idea.
After basically spending the entire day doing nothing, I went with Krikor up to Robin's new apartment. Let me first take this moment to thank God I live on the 3rd floor - he's on the top floor of a 7-storey walkup. I cannot imagine lugging heavy objects up that many flights of stairs.
Upon arriving, we were greeted by Robin, Tomoko, and her friend Tarlan. I'm still puzzled by Robin's continuing to live with Tomoko. She cheated on him with a guy in Australia, who she's now engaged to, and he continues to be a friend and roommate to her. I understand that it was probably for the best that she's not dating him anymore, and that it's OK to remain friends in most circumstances, but this is a little over the top. The fact that Robin's even spoken to the Aussie guy on the phone and considers him a friend is even weirder. I really think he needs to get out of there. I was particularly shocked when Tarlan and Tomoko were talking about Tarlan's maid of honor dress and Robin made some sort of comment. "You'd better not be like that at the wedding," Tarlan said. "You have to be my date." He really needs to get out of there.
Anyway, after a few drinks at Robin's, we set off to some bar in the area. It was already after midnight when we got there, and not too crowded, so we had no problem getting a steady supply of alcohol. This is where the problem arose. At some point, I got up to use the bathroom. When I came back, my nearly empty glass had been cleared away. Somewhat annoyed that I hadn't finished my drink, I ordered another one. Big mistake. I wasn't feeling very tipsy at this point, so I figured another bourbon would be OK.
It only took about a minute after I finished that last drink for ALL the alcohol to hit me at once. We were in the process of leaving the bar, when I realized I was having a little trouble navigating. Krikor managed to get a cab, and I nearly passed out on the ride home. We made it upstairs and I went straight to the bathroom to throw up. After a few minutes Krikor knocked on the door to make sure I was OK. I told him I was fine, and he went off to bed. The next thing I knew, I was waking up on the bathroom floor with sunlight streaming in through the window.
I picked myself up and nearly fell right back down. The room was spinning like crazy. Apparently, I was still drunk. Very drunk. I got up again, more carefully this time, and stumbled into my bedroom, shoving a few tictacs into my mouth as I fell into bed.
Around noon the phone rang, waking me up. Shit. I was supposed to meet Kahn for brunch and help him study for some corporate finance test.
"Hello."
"Hey Jay, hope you don't mind, but can we reschedule for later tonight? I overslept a bit."
Thank God.
"Sure, no problem, call me later."
At this point, I realize the tictacs I ate earlier are still in my mouth. However, they apparently had dissolved and then reformulated into one large minty blob stuck in the corner of my mouth. Hours later my tongue was still green.
I managed, at this point, to get up out of bed and swallow a few advils. Still intoxicated, I went into the living room and turned on the TV. I put on the History Channel, and proceeded to fade in and out of consciousness while listening to the biography of Benjamin Franklin. It wasn't until about 4PM that I finally felt capable of standing up for any extended period of time.
Things Learned From Last Night's Experience:
1. Don't drink 6 glasses of whiskey on an empty stomach
2. Tarlan dates rich men who she can manipulate
3. Do not attempt to sleep until you have finished your tictacs
4. Benjamin Franklin was big into prostitutes
After basically spending the entire day doing nothing, I went with Krikor up to Robin's new apartment. Let me first take this moment to thank God I live on the 3rd floor - he's on the top floor of a 7-storey walkup. I cannot imagine lugging heavy objects up that many flights of stairs.
Upon arriving, we were greeted by Robin, Tomoko, and her friend Tarlan. I'm still puzzled by Robin's continuing to live with Tomoko. She cheated on him with a guy in Australia, who she's now engaged to, and he continues to be a friend and roommate to her. I understand that it was probably for the best that she's not dating him anymore, and that it's OK to remain friends in most circumstances, but this is a little over the top. The fact that Robin's even spoken to the Aussie guy on the phone and considers him a friend is even weirder. I really think he needs to get out of there. I was particularly shocked when Tarlan and Tomoko were talking about Tarlan's maid of honor dress and Robin made some sort of comment. "You'd better not be like that at the wedding," Tarlan said. "You have to be my date." He really needs to get out of there.
Anyway, after a few drinks at Robin's, we set off to some bar in the area. It was already after midnight when we got there, and not too crowded, so we had no problem getting a steady supply of alcohol. This is where the problem arose. At some point, I got up to use the bathroom. When I came back, my nearly empty glass had been cleared away. Somewhat annoyed that I hadn't finished my drink, I ordered another one. Big mistake. I wasn't feeling very tipsy at this point, so I figured another bourbon would be OK.
It only took about a minute after I finished that last drink for ALL the alcohol to hit me at once. We were in the process of leaving the bar, when I realized I was having a little trouble navigating. Krikor managed to get a cab, and I nearly passed out on the ride home. We made it upstairs and I went straight to the bathroom to throw up. After a few minutes Krikor knocked on the door to make sure I was OK. I told him I was fine, and he went off to bed. The next thing I knew, I was waking up on the bathroom floor with sunlight streaming in through the window.
I picked myself up and nearly fell right back down. The room was spinning like crazy. Apparently, I was still drunk. Very drunk. I got up again, more carefully this time, and stumbled into my bedroom, shoving a few tictacs into my mouth as I fell into bed.
Around noon the phone rang, waking me up. Shit. I was supposed to meet Kahn for brunch and help him study for some corporate finance test.
"Hello."
"Hey Jay, hope you don't mind, but can we reschedule for later tonight? I overslept a bit."
Thank God.
"Sure, no problem, call me later."
At this point, I realize the tictacs I ate earlier are still in my mouth. However, they apparently had dissolved and then reformulated into one large minty blob stuck in the corner of my mouth. Hours later my tongue was still green.
I managed, at this point, to get up out of bed and swallow a few advils. Still intoxicated, I went into the living room and turned on the TV. I put on the History Channel, and proceeded to fade in and out of consciousness while listening to the biography of Benjamin Franklin. It wasn't until about 4PM that I finally felt capable of standing up for any extended period of time.
Things Learned From Last Night's Experience:
1. Don't drink 6 glasses of whiskey on an empty stomach
2. Tarlan dates rich men who she can manipulate
3. Do not attempt to sleep until you have finished your tictacs
4. Benjamin Franklin was big into prostitutes
Tuesday, April 26, 2005
Registered
So, I've officially passed all three of the exams I needed to take in order to keep my new job and actually start trading. Major pain in the ass, but it's done. I now can stick Series 7, 63, and 55 on my resume. I also, technically, am now a licensed stockbroker. No, I do not have any intention of actually acting on this, but I suppose it's kind of cool to knowthat I could if I wanted. Of course, the drawback is that until I leave the industry, all my financial information has to be sent to my employer on a regular basis so I can be observed and surveilled in case I might choose to trade on insider information. Basically, it's a minor inconvenience.
Finishing these tests also now gives me the time to start going back to the gym. I stepped foot inside the Cornell Club yesterday for the first time in over 4 weeks, and I definitely felt that workout today. I went back for more punishment this afternoon, and I plan on going at least twice more this week. After over a year of consistent exercising, I hit a big plateau not long ago. Hopefully, this month off will re-energize me.
I kept kosher for Passover for about 2.5 days this year, which is pretty impressive for me. I even went out last night and bought a whole bunch of food that I could cook so I could try and last the whole week. But, lunchtime rolled around today and I was way too hungry for a salad, and the entrees at the cafeteria looked dreadful. Sandwich it is. OK, perhaps the ham and cheese was pushing it a little, but it's not as bad as leaving a seder and going straight to Hot Truck, so I suppose it could have been worse. OK, maybe not by much.
Although the first seder was, as usual, hosted by my parents in NJ, I was invited down to Livingston for the second night at Lauren's parents' house. I was pretty worried it would be awkward - I hadn't seen them in around 4 years, and Lauren hasn't really said anything to them about us being together again. Surprisingly, everything went great. I felt like nothing had changed, and that I fit right back in as usual. The only difference was that their dog wasn't running around under the table. (Apparently, he died a few years ago.) More about Lauren another time, but I'll leave it at this - I'm really happy again.
I know this post was pretty crappy, but I'm tired and totally unfocused. I haven't had much energy to write recently, so I figure it's better to put something down on paper when I feel the urge, rather than wait for inspiration to strike and not write anything for another month,
Finishing these tests also now gives me the time to start going back to the gym. I stepped foot inside the Cornell Club yesterday for the first time in over 4 weeks, and I definitely felt that workout today. I went back for more punishment this afternoon, and I plan on going at least twice more this week. After over a year of consistent exercising, I hit a big plateau not long ago. Hopefully, this month off will re-energize me.
I kept kosher for Passover for about 2.5 days this year, which is pretty impressive for me. I even went out last night and bought a whole bunch of food that I could cook so I could try and last the whole week. But, lunchtime rolled around today and I was way too hungry for a salad, and the entrees at the cafeteria looked dreadful. Sandwich it is. OK, perhaps the ham and cheese was pushing it a little, but it's not as bad as leaving a seder and going straight to Hot Truck, so I suppose it could have been worse. OK, maybe not by much.
Although the first seder was, as usual, hosted by my parents in NJ, I was invited down to Livingston for the second night at Lauren's parents' house. I was pretty worried it would be awkward - I hadn't seen them in around 4 years, and Lauren hasn't really said anything to them about us being together again. Surprisingly, everything went great. I felt like nothing had changed, and that I fit right back in as usual. The only difference was that their dog wasn't running around under the table. (Apparently, he died a few years ago.) More about Lauren another time, but I'll leave it at this - I'm really happy again.
I know this post was pretty crappy, but I'm tired and totally unfocused. I haven't had much energy to write recently, so I figure it's better to put something down on paper when I feel the urge, rather than wait for inspiration to strike and not write anything for another month,
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
Oh Wait, I Have A Blog
Erm, uh, right. Hello. Yeah, so, I've been a little bit busy the past few weeks. I took a vacation, got a new job, took a huge test, and found myself a woman. Yup, things have been interesting.
So, as mentioned, I'm no longer working on the AMEX. According to my new employment agreement I am not permitted to mention the name of the firm on any personal websites, so if you really want to know where I'm working, you'll just have to ask me directly. I can say that it is a specialized research and trading firm, and I'm going to be a trader on our execution desk. I wrote "going to" because I can't actually do anything yet until I pass the Series 7, 63, and 55. But, I managed to pass the 7 this afternoon, so maybe they'll allow me to answer a phone or use a computer or some such thing. For the time being, all I can really do is watch. At least they're paying me at half-rate until I've passed the 3 exams.
Speaking of the Series 7, that is not an easy test. I studied for about 3 weeks, of which the last 5 days or so were pretty intense. I was getting 85% or so on the practice exams, so I felt pretty good going in. Once the test started though, I was in for a shock. Those questions were hard, confusing, and sometimes not even grammatically correct. After the first half, (it's a 2-part, 250 question test that's given over the course of 7+ hours,) I was pretty nervous. I calculated that, given all the questions I was unsure about, I was probably running about a 74%. Since 70% is passing, I was right on the edge. After my lunch break I went into the bathroom for a little pep-talk. Staring into the mirror I scowled at my reflection. "Just get in there and do it!" I instructed myself. Part 2, however, was even more iffy - 69% seemed like my likely score. I finished up, pressed the button to calculate my score, and began to sweat it out. My heart was literally pounding, and the 10 seconds it took to determine my results were agonizing. Finally, the numbers.
92%
Are you fucking kidding me? Here I was, sweating bullets, convinced that I was going to fail the test, get fired after 8 days on the job, and instead I have a 22% margin of error. That's just great. You know, if I'd come in at around 80% I'd have been thrilled. Instead, I'm irritated that I got myself worked up over nothing.
Seriously, I'm pretty happy, and I'm glad that the hardest of the 3 tests is now officially out of the way. And, if ever I need to switch jobs, at least now I'm officially registered with the NASD, which opens up a lot of doors.
In other news, I had an amusing time down in Florida visiting the extended family. Grandma did not recognize me and continues to be, essentially, senile. I am quite used to this now, seeing as she's been this way for the past 10 years or so, but it's still not too much fun to visit her. Instead, I spent most of my time entertaining my 5 year old cousin, who may be the most adorable child on Earth. She latched onto me instantly, and was constantly searching me out to play games, read books, show off her toys, and all the other things that 5-year-olds to when they suddenly find an older playmate. I hope I get a chance to go back down there again soon - she's too adorable to miss.
Of course, her father, my cousin David, has some issues he still needs to work out. As usual, he's hitting on everything female in sight, regardless of age, weight, or number of teeth. (They live in central Florida - the teeth thing is a big problem down there.) It's kind of embarassing to be around him when he gets into that mode. He was in a bad car accident when he was 17 or so, and got a little screwed up in the head because of it. He still has the mentality of a teenager even though he's probably 36 years old by now. The night before I left we decided to go hang out and hit some of the local bars - apparently he decided this meant going to a bunch of strip clubs. I have to tell you, I'm not a fan of the strip club thing - I get turned off by the falseness of it all, and I much prefer the real thing...
Speaking of, I suppose I should admit that there's once again a woman in my life. Again. I said I'd never go back, but it seems I'm once again dating someone who I went out with in the past. You know her. And you probably will be surprised unless you've been around my apartment the past few weeks. That should produce a little intrigue for you all out there. Looks like I'll have a date to all of those weddings after all.
So, as mentioned, I'm no longer working on the AMEX. According to my new employment agreement I am not permitted to mention the name of the firm on any personal websites, so if you really want to know where I'm working, you'll just have to ask me directly. I can say that it is a specialized research and trading firm, and I'm going to be a trader on our execution desk. I wrote "going to" because I can't actually do anything yet until I pass the Series 7, 63, and 55. But, I managed to pass the 7 this afternoon, so maybe they'll allow me to answer a phone or use a computer or some such thing. For the time being, all I can really do is watch. At least they're paying me at half-rate until I've passed the 3 exams.
Speaking of the Series 7, that is not an easy test. I studied for about 3 weeks, of which the last 5 days or so were pretty intense. I was getting 85% or so on the practice exams, so I felt pretty good going in. Once the test started though, I was in for a shock. Those questions were hard, confusing, and sometimes not even grammatically correct. After the first half, (it's a 2-part, 250 question test that's given over the course of 7+ hours,) I was pretty nervous. I calculated that, given all the questions I was unsure about, I was probably running about a 74%. Since 70% is passing, I was right on the edge. After my lunch break I went into the bathroom for a little pep-talk. Staring into the mirror I scowled at my reflection. "Just get in there and do it!" I instructed myself. Part 2, however, was even more iffy - 69% seemed like my likely score. I finished up, pressed the button to calculate my score, and began to sweat it out. My heart was literally pounding, and the 10 seconds it took to determine my results were agonizing. Finally, the numbers.
92%
Are you fucking kidding me? Here I was, sweating bullets, convinced that I was going to fail the test, get fired after 8 days on the job, and instead I have a 22% margin of error. That's just great. You know, if I'd come in at around 80% I'd have been thrilled. Instead, I'm irritated that I got myself worked up over nothing.
Seriously, I'm pretty happy, and I'm glad that the hardest of the 3 tests is now officially out of the way. And, if ever I need to switch jobs, at least now I'm officially registered with the NASD, which opens up a lot of doors.
In other news, I had an amusing time down in Florida visiting the extended family. Grandma did not recognize me and continues to be, essentially, senile. I am quite used to this now, seeing as she's been this way for the past 10 years or so, but it's still not too much fun to visit her. Instead, I spent most of my time entertaining my 5 year old cousin, who may be the most adorable child on Earth. She latched onto me instantly, and was constantly searching me out to play games, read books, show off her toys, and all the other things that 5-year-olds to when they suddenly find an older playmate. I hope I get a chance to go back down there again soon - she's too adorable to miss.
Of course, her father, my cousin David, has some issues he still needs to work out. As usual, he's hitting on everything female in sight, regardless of age, weight, or number of teeth. (They live in central Florida - the teeth thing is a big problem down there.) It's kind of embarassing to be around him when he gets into that mode. He was in a bad car accident when he was 17 or so, and got a little screwed up in the head because of it. He still has the mentality of a teenager even though he's probably 36 years old by now. The night before I left we decided to go hang out and hit some of the local bars - apparently he decided this meant going to a bunch of strip clubs. I have to tell you, I'm not a fan of the strip club thing - I get turned off by the falseness of it all, and I much prefer the real thing...
Speaking of, I suppose I should admit that there's once again a woman in my life. Again. I said I'd never go back, but it seems I'm once again dating someone who I went out with in the past. You know her. And you probably will be surprised unless you've been around my apartment the past few weeks. That should produce a little intrigue for you all out there. Looks like I'll have a date to all of those weddings after all.
Thursday, March 17, 2005
Interview III
The past few days have been nothing short of surreal. At times I've had to take a big mental step backwards in order to clear my head and remind myself of where I am, and where I'm going.
I quit my job on Wednesday. Monday evening I got a callback from company xxxxxxx again, asking me to come in on Tuesday after work in order to meet again with the HR director. Kind of surprising, since I had expected to meet with a few more people there before any decisions were made. In fact, I was more than a little concerned that this meeting had something to do with my possible arbitration situation. However, I was pleasantly surprised with a brief meeting in which an offer sheet was presented. With very generous terms, I might add.
Since I've told my people at the AMEX that I'm leaving, I've been almost in a daze at work. There's even less for me to do there than there had been in weeks past, which gives me plenty of time to contemplate the idea of not working there anymore. It's still not quite all sunk in. I WILL NOT WORK AT THE AMEX ANYMORE. I'm not going to be one of those guys in the funny colored jackets yelling at each other. I'm not going to be a member of a stock exchange.
It's really interesting how your occupation essentially defines who you are. Whenever you're introduced to someone, the topic of occupation comes up almost always within the first five to ten minutes. Even if you're unemployed, you mention the industry you're hoping to work in, or whatever your last job was. Right now, I'm between jobs. I don't "work" for anyone right now. I'm in limbo until I start my new career. It's been stressful at times - I can't really explain why, but I've felt a lot of pressure suddenly. I really wish things would move along, and I could settle in to the new job as quickly as possible.
Instead, I'm going on vacation. I booked a flight to Florida for Sunday, and I'm looking forward to sitting by the pool and relaxing. I have plenty of reading material, seeing as I need to pass the Series 7 nearly immediately. I went uptown to the new office this afternoon and picked up ten pounds of review course material, which I will soon add to my collection of Large Binders I Will Never Open Again After The Test.
That bookshelf really needs reinforcing.
I quit my job on Wednesday. Monday evening I got a callback from company xxxxxxx again, asking me to come in on Tuesday after work in order to meet again with the HR director. Kind of surprising, since I had expected to meet with a few more people there before any decisions were made. In fact, I was more than a little concerned that this meeting had something to do with my possible arbitration situation. However, I was pleasantly surprised with a brief meeting in which an offer sheet was presented. With very generous terms, I might add.
Since I've told my people at the AMEX that I'm leaving, I've been almost in a daze at work. There's even less for me to do there than there had been in weeks past, which gives me plenty of time to contemplate the idea of not working there anymore. It's still not quite all sunk in. I WILL NOT WORK AT THE AMEX ANYMORE. I'm not going to be one of those guys in the funny colored jackets yelling at each other. I'm not going to be a member of a stock exchange.
It's really interesting how your occupation essentially defines who you are. Whenever you're introduced to someone, the topic of occupation comes up almost always within the first five to ten minutes. Even if you're unemployed, you mention the industry you're hoping to work in, or whatever your last job was. Right now, I'm between jobs. I don't "work" for anyone right now. I'm in limbo until I start my new career. It's been stressful at times - I can't really explain why, but I've felt a lot of pressure suddenly. I really wish things would move along, and I could settle in to the new job as quickly as possible.
Instead, I'm going on vacation. I booked a flight to Florida for Sunday, and I'm looking forward to sitting by the pool and relaxing. I have plenty of reading material, seeing as I need to pass the Series 7 nearly immediately. I went uptown to the new office this afternoon and picked up ten pounds of review course material, which I will soon add to my collection of Large Binders I Will Never Open Again After The Test.
That bookshelf really needs reinforcing.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Message
The callback for the message on my phone was from a New Jersey area code, but the number was unfamiliar. The voice, although strained and shaky, was instantly recognizable.
"Hi, it's me. Remember on Saturday night when I told you I wasn't feeling very well? Well, I went to the hospital yesterday, and they admitted me, and I'm going to be here for a few days. I think you should probably call me."
Lauren.
We've been in touch fairly regularly over the past few months - speaking on the phone several times a week and even seeing each other once every month or so. I don't intend this to be the cause of any speculation regarding the two of us because, honestly, I have no idea if there's anything to speculate about. Intentionally or not, we've completely avoided any discussion of whether there's any "us." Tacitly, we're friends. Who occasionally sleep together when circumstances warrant.
Last week I was mulling over the merits of platony, and had generally decided that I'm still not quite at the stage where I'd like to be in terms of having a serious relationship. I'm still not quite feeling myself after the fallout of the Sharon debacle - more than one person has recently used the word "bitter" when commenting on my description of my last relationship. I was really thinking I'd probably be best off with some non-serious dating, to cleanse the palate as it were. Revisiting past conquests, particularly those that were both emotionally and psychologically taxing, is probably not a good idea for me right now.
Hearing Lauren's unsteady voice on the phone completely shakes the foundation of that plan. She's currently undergoing treatment for a complete systemic bacterial infection, the nature of which is still somewhat unknown. She is on some very heavy antibiotics, and a regular dose of morphine to boot. This is not a trivial course of treatment, and she is understandably shaken.
We spoke for maybe half an hour, before the fatigue and drugs tired her out. Her condition is improving, but she'll be hospitalized for at least two more days as the doctors figure out what exactly is wrong with her. I'll probably take a trip down to NJ later this week to visit. As with all my relationships, I'll play the role of the rocksteady, supportive champion opposite her, the damsel in distress. Atypically, the distress is this time physical, not psychological.
"Hi, it's me. Remember on Saturday night when I told you I wasn't feeling very well? Well, I went to the hospital yesterday, and they admitted me, and I'm going to be here for a few days. I think you should probably call me."
Lauren.
We've been in touch fairly regularly over the past few months - speaking on the phone several times a week and even seeing each other once every month or so. I don't intend this to be the cause of any speculation regarding the two of us because, honestly, I have no idea if there's anything to speculate about. Intentionally or not, we've completely avoided any discussion of whether there's any "us." Tacitly, we're friends. Who occasionally sleep together when circumstances warrant.
Last week I was mulling over the merits of platony, and had generally decided that I'm still not quite at the stage where I'd like to be in terms of having a serious relationship. I'm still not quite feeling myself after the fallout of the Sharon debacle - more than one person has recently used the word "bitter" when commenting on my description of my last relationship. I was really thinking I'd probably be best off with some non-serious dating, to cleanse the palate as it were. Revisiting past conquests, particularly those that were both emotionally and psychologically taxing, is probably not a good idea for me right now.
Hearing Lauren's unsteady voice on the phone completely shakes the foundation of that plan. She's currently undergoing treatment for a complete systemic bacterial infection, the nature of which is still somewhat unknown. She is on some very heavy antibiotics, and a regular dose of morphine to boot. This is not a trivial course of treatment, and she is understandably shaken.
We spoke for maybe half an hour, before the fatigue and drugs tired her out. Her condition is improving, but she'll be hospitalized for at least two more days as the doctors figure out what exactly is wrong with her. I'll probably take a trip down to NJ later this week to visit. As with all my relationships, I'll play the role of the rocksteady, supportive champion opposite her, the damsel in distress. Atypically, the distress is this time physical, not psychological.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Weekend Update
I spent the weekend visiting my family in NJ, which explains the paucity of posting of late. (Hey - alliteration - cool!) I hate doing these condensed multi-day update posts, but there's really no way around it other than simply not writing, which I don't particularly want to do either. So, in order to maintain the timeline, thus follows the very brief update:
Thursday - had interview, went well.
Friday - work was boring. Went to NJ. Almost finished the Atlantic Magazine crossword.
Saturday - slept in, went to Barnes & Noble, went to Taryn's house, watched a movie
Sunday - lunch with Arpi, came back to NY.
Now, on to the things that matter.
For the first time in my life, my sister beat me at chess. And I mean beat me. No, I was not letting her win, and no, I did not help her at all either. She thoroughly beat me with an impressive strategy that I was completely unprepared for. I do not claim to be a good chess player by any stretch, but she literally learned the game 3 months ago. I wouldn't be so concerned if she had won a long game of attrition, or even if we reached a stage in the game where it was pointless to continue. No, she checkmated me in 20 moves. I have already installed K-Chess on my computer, and will be practicing for the next time she's home. Reputations are at stake here.
The Barnes & Noble discount bin was good to me this week. Just this past Wednesday I saw a book I wanted to buy - a biography of Carlo Ponzi. The idea of paying $27 for yet another book to add to my to-read pile was downright repulsive, though, considering it's a minor miracle the shelves in my room haven't yet collapsed under their own weight. Besides, by the time I actually get around to reading it, the book will surely be out in paperback. However, sitting on the bottom of the discount bin at B&N on Saturday night, was the holy grail of the avid reader - the Reviewer's Copy. For the discounted price of just $5 you too can own a copy of today's best-sellers. As long as you don't mind the incredibly ugly cover that says "Random House" all over it in bright blue, and the fact that the index and table of contents refer everything to page 000. A worthy sacrifice in my opinion. I'm already 50 pages in.
Next time I go back to NJ, I think I need to bring some of these books with me. That shelf really does look like it's starting to bow out in the center...
Thursday - had interview, went well.
Friday - work was boring. Went to NJ. Almost finished the Atlantic Magazine crossword.
Saturday - slept in, went to Barnes & Noble, went to Taryn's house, watched a movie
Sunday - lunch with Arpi, came back to NY.
Now, on to the things that matter.
For the first time in my life, my sister beat me at chess. And I mean beat me. No, I was not letting her win, and no, I did not help her at all either. She thoroughly beat me with an impressive strategy that I was completely unprepared for. I do not claim to be a good chess player by any stretch, but she literally learned the game 3 months ago. I wouldn't be so concerned if she had won a long game of attrition, or even if we reached a stage in the game where it was pointless to continue. No, she checkmated me in 20 moves. I have already installed K-Chess on my computer, and will be practicing for the next time she's home. Reputations are at stake here.
The Barnes & Noble discount bin was good to me this week. Just this past Wednesday I saw a book I wanted to buy - a biography of Carlo Ponzi. The idea of paying $27 for yet another book to add to my to-read pile was downright repulsive, though, considering it's a minor miracle the shelves in my room haven't yet collapsed under their own weight. Besides, by the time I actually get around to reading it, the book will surely be out in paperback. However, sitting on the bottom of the discount bin at B&N on Saturday night, was the holy grail of the avid reader - the Reviewer's Copy. For the discounted price of just $5 you too can own a copy of today's best-sellers. As long as you don't mind the incredibly ugly cover that says "Random House" all over it in bright blue, and the fact that the index and table of contents refer everything to page 000. A worthy sacrifice in my opinion. I'm already 50 pages in.
Next time I go back to NJ, I think I need to bring some of these books with me. That shelf really does look like it's starting to bow out in the center...
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